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Sector Rotation Screen

July 26, 2026 · 11 SPDR sector ETFs vs SPY · Composite weights: Seasonality 25% / Cycle 40% / RS 35%

Mid-cycle

INDPRO YoY +1.1% between 0.0% and 4.0% with curve +0.34: steady expansion.

10Y - 2Y spread

+0.34

6m change: -0.30

10Y yield

4.71%

2Y: 4.37%

INDPRO YoY

+1.1%

3m trend: +1.0

INDPRO as of

2026-06-01

10Y as of: 2026-07-23

Sector Scores & Signals

ETF	Name	Last	% From 52W High	Seasonality	n yrs	Cycle Fit	Rel Strength	RS 3m	Composite	Signal
XLK	Technology	$175.88	-11.16%	84.7	20	100.0	46.0	8.42%	77.3	Buy
XLC	Communications	$106.30	-10.96%	74.3 ⚠	9	100.0	44.4	-13.78%	74.1	Watch
XLE	Energy	$59.62	-4.01%	66.2	20	50.0	86.5	0.82%	66.8	Buy
XLRE	Real Estate	$45.95	0.00%	90.7	11	50.0	59.3	0.87%	63.5	Hold
XLF	Financials	$56.31	-0.78%	82.1	20	50.0	51.1	4.52%	58.4	Hold
XLV	Healthcare	$162.57	-1.14%	80.0	20	35.0	60.9	7.09%	55.3	Hold
XLI	Industrials	$182.66	-1.56%	85.2	20	50.0	37.7	0.62%	54.5	Hold
XLU	Utilities	$46.29	-1.72%	76.5	20	35.0	42.5	-3.50%	48.0	Hold
XLB	Materials	$51.26	-3.62%	73.5	20	50.0	26.8	-5.26%	47.8	Hold
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	$109.41	-11.78%	81.8	20	50.0	13.4	-11.46%	45.1	Hold
XLP	Consumer Staples	$84.13	-5.35%	78.1	20	35.0	31.1	-3.09%	44.4	Hold

Click any column header to sort. ⚠ flags sectors with under 10 years of history. Composite weights and signal thresholds tunable in config.py.

Backtest since May 2011

Strategy cum return

+636.32%

SPY: +626.21%

Strategy CAGR

+14.15%

SPY: +14.05%

Strategy Sharpe

0.89

SPY: 0.98

Max drawdown

-18.78%

SPY: -22.93%

Equity curves start at 1.00. Trading cost 1 bps applied to turnover at each rebalance. Cash held when no sectors clear MIN_SCORE_TO_HOLD=50.

Seasonality Heatmap (avg monthly return by sector)

Sector	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
XLK	+0.1%	+0.7%	+1.5%	+2.8%	+3.3%	+0.9%	+3.0%	+1.0%	-0.2%	+1.8%	+2.0%	+0.8%
XLF	-0.2%	-0.5%	+0.2%	+2.6%	+0.1%	-1.0%	+2.8%	+0.3%	-0.6%	+1.1%	+2.3%	+1.0%
XLE	+1.3%	+1.6%	+1.3%	+3.4%	-0.2%	-0.1%	+1.1%	-1.5%	-0.8%	+1.6%	+2.3%	-0.1%
XLV	+0.9%	-0.2%	+0.8%	+1.0%	+0.7%	+1.2%	+2.1%	+0.6%	-0.3%	+0.6%	+2.7%	+0.9%
XLI	+0.5%	+1.0%	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.5%	-0.1%	+2.6%	-0.0%	-0.0%	+0.9%	+3.5%	+0.6%
XLY	+0.8%	-0.0%	+0.8%	+3.1%	+0.3%	+0.1%	+2.8%	+0.7%	+0.4%	+0.5%	+2.7%	+0.5%
XLP	-0.2%	+0.6%	+1.6%	+1.5%	+0.0%	+0.0%	+2.1%	+0.5%	-0.3%	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.7%
XLU	+0.2%	-0.7%	+2.6%	+2.0%	+0.3%	+0.0%	+2.2%	+0.2%	-0.5%	+1.7%	+0.9%	+0.7%
XLB	-0.0%	+1.5%	+1.3%	+2.6%	+0.4%	-0.7%	+2.3%	-0.1%	-1.4%	+0.8%	+2.9%	+0.6%
XLRE	+0.5%	-0.3%	+0.9%	+1.0%	+0.4%	+1.8%	+3.4%	+0.7%	-2.9%	-0.9%	+3.1%	+0.5%
XLC	+4.2%	-0.9%	-0.8%	+2.0%	+2.6%	+0.8%	+2.0%	+1.5%	-2.0%	-0.7%	+3.5%	-0.0%

Green > 0%, red < 0%. Cells require ≥5 years of history for that month.

3-Month Relative Strength vs SPY

XLK

+8.42%

XLV

+7.09%

XLF

+4.52%

XLRE

+0.87%

XLE

+0.82%

XLI

+0.62%

XLP

-3.09%

XLU

-3.50%

XLB

-5.26%

XLY

-11.46%

XLC

-13.78%

Drill-Down: XLK (Technology) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
CIBR	Cybersecurity	77.9	Buy	48	-2.9%	+1.4%	0.9x	Good entry
SKYY	Cloud Computing	67.7	Buy	43	-3.0%	-2.6%	1.1x	Good entry
IGV	Software	61.9	Hold	39	-4.3%	-5.1%	0.9x	Good entry
FDN	Internet	58.5	Hold	38	-3.7%	-3.9%	1.5x	Good entry
SMH	Semiconductors	48.8	Hold	43	-5.5%	-6.3%	0.8x	Oversold
BOTZ	AI & Robotics	44.6	Hold	34	-6.1%	-10.4%	0.9x	Oversold

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in CIBR (Cybersecurity)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
NET	Cloudflare	3.0%	87.1	Buy	53	-0.4%	+8.4%	0.9x	Reasonable
CRWD	CrowdStrike	6.5%	85.4	Buy	47	-5.2%	+3.0%	0.8x	Oversold
TENB	Tenable	2.0%	82.3	Buy	44	-14.0%	+4.7%	1.0x	Oversold
PANW	Palo Alto Networks	7.0%	76.1	Buy	50	-4.5%	+9.0%	0.8x	Reasonable
GEN	Gen Digital	3.5%	73.5	Buy	52	-0.7%	+2.4%	0.8x	Reasonable
OKTA	Okta	3.0%	58.9	Hold	53	-2.8%	+13.5%	0.9x	Reasonable
ZS	Zscaler	5.0%	58.4	Hold	50	-1.7%	-0.7%	0.7x	Good entry
FTNT	Fortinet	5.5%	55.3	Hold	49	-3.8%	+4.0%	0.8x	Good entry
CSCO	Cisco Systems	4.5%	39.8	Avoid	49	-0.2%	-2.7%	0.7x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLC (Communications) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
SOCL	Social Media	60.1	Hold	41	-3.0%	-3.0%	0.9x	Good entry
NERD	Gaming & Esports	57.5	Hold	42	-2.4%	-1.5%	0.8x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in SOCL (Social Media)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
SPOT	Spotify	4.5%	68.7	Buy	52	+0.8%	+0.9%	1.1x	Reasonable
META	Meta Platforms	11.4%	64.6	Hold	44	-4.2%	-1.8%	0.6x	Good entry
035720.KS	Kakao Corp	4.2%	50.7	Hold	50	+3.1%	-5.2%	1.0x	Reasonable
035420.KS	NAVER Corp	8.3%	46.8	Hold	52	+6.2%	-2.9%	1.1x	Extended
NTES	NetEase	4.3%	44.8	Hold	40	-7.0%	-3.1%	0.9x	Oversold
BIDU	Baidu	6.0%	43.5	Hold	38	-5.7%	-12.1%	0.6x	Oversold
SNAP	Snap Inc	3.5%	42.8	Hold	34	-5.4%	-14.6%	0.8x	Oversold
RDDT	Reddit	7.0%	36.6	Avoid	42	-9.8%	-2.9%	1.1x	Oversold
GOOGL	Alphabet	7.9%	32.1	Avoid	32	-9.2%	-12.3%	1.1x	Oversold
TCEHY	Tencent Holdings	10.0%	25.1	Avoid	44	-3.8%	-3.0%	1.1x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLE (Energy) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
XOP	Oil & Gas E&P	81.0	Buy	65	+6.6%	+6.1%	1.0x	Extended
AMLP	MLPs / Midstream	62.3	Hold	67	+3.3%	+4.1%	0.9x	Reasonable
OIH	Oil Services	60.4	Hold	54	+4.1%	-3.0%	0.8x	Reasonable
URA	Uranium / Nuclear	23.6	Avoid	39	-4.1%	-12.4%	1.1x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in XOP (Oil & Gas E&P)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
SM	SM Energy	2.9%	96.4	Buy	67	+13.4%	+9.6%	0.9x	Extended
VG	Venture Global	3.2%	94.8	Buy	61	+12.9%	+13.5%	1.4x	Extended
CHRD	Chord Energy	2.8%	80.3	Buy	67	+12.7%	+6.2%	1.0x	Extended
XOM	Exxon Mobil	2.8%	65.3	Buy	72	+9.2%	+7.1%	0.9x	Extended
FANG	Diamondback Energy	2.8%	60.5	Hold	67	+9.1%	+6.4%	0.9x	Extended
CVX	Chevron	2.8%	59.4	Hold	71	+8.6%	+6.7%	0.8x	Extended
APA	APA Corp	2.9%	56.6	Hold	59	+6.4%	+1.8%	0.9x	Extended
MUR	Murphy Oil	2.9%	45.9	Hold	64	+11.4%	+6.6%	0.8x	Extended
TPL	Texas Pacific Land	2.7%	39.6	Avoid	56	+1.8%	+6.2%	0.7x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLRE (Real Estate) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
VNQ	REITs Broad	68.4	Buy	64	+2.6%	+4.3%	0.7x	Reasonable
MORT	Mortgage REITs	39.9	Avoid	45	-1.8%	-0.3%	1.0x	Good entry
ITB	Homebuilders	31.9	Avoid	49	-1.8%	+1.3%	0.9x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in VNQ (REITs Broad)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
WELL	Welltower	7.7%	96.3	Buy	74	+6.4%	+13.8%	0.9x	Extended
PLD	Prologis	7.0%	71.2	Buy	57	+3.2%	+3.2%	1.2x	Reasonable
O	Realty Income	3.2%	61.1	Hold	63	+2.6%	+5.5%	0.7x	Reasonable
DLR	Digital Realty	3.5%	51.5	Hold	69	+11.1%	+7.9%	1.0x	Extended
SPG	Simon Property	3.5%	49.3	Hold	64	+2.3%	+7.2%	0.7x	Reasonable
EQIX	Equinix	5.5%	34.8	Avoid	62	+4.9%	+2.6%	0.9x	Reasonable
PSA	Public Storage	2.8%	34.1	Avoid	55	+0.7%	+3.0%	1.5x	Reasonable
EXR	Extra Space Storage	2.3%	28.6	Avoid	54	+0.9%	+2.1%	1.2x	Reasonable
AMT	American Tower	4.6%	16.0	Avoid	44	-0.2%	-5.2%	0.9x	Good entry
CCI	Crown Castle	2.5%	13.9	Avoid	37	-3.5%	-11.0%	1.1x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLF (Financials) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
KIE	Insurance	72.2	Buy	62	+1.5%	+7.8%	0.7x	Reasonable
IYG	Financial Services	60.7	Hold	60	+1.0%	+4.6%	0.8x	Reasonable
KRE	Regional Banks	55.6	Hold	56	+0.4%	+4.9%	1.0x	Reasonable
KBE	Banks	55.4	Hold	57	+0.5%	+5.0%	0.8x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in KIE (Insurance)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
RYAN	Ryan Specialty	2.1%	73.1	Buy	60	+2.5%	+15.1%	0.8x	Reasonable
WTM	White Mountains Ins	2.1%	60.1	Hold	63	+2.2%	+5.0%	0.8x	Reasonable
AGO	Assured Guaranty	2.0%	54.4	Hold	66	+2.7%	+8.3%	0.9x	Reasonable
L	Loews Corp	2.1%	50.7	Hold	67	+2.6%	+6.9%	0.8x	Reasonable
RNR	RenaissanceRe	2.0%	49.5	Hold	62	+2.9%	+8.3%	1.0x	Reasonable
ORI	Old Republic Intl	2.1%	44.3	Hold	60	+1.8%	+6.5%	0.8x	Reasonable
MCY	Mercury General	2.2%	39.9	Avoid	54	-0.5%	+3.7%	0.8x	Reasonable
CINF	Cincinnati Financial	2.0%	38.4	Avoid	57	+0.3%	+6.1%	0.8x	Reasonable
LMND	Lemonade	2.9%	33.1	Avoid	42	-11.2%	-1.0%	0.6x	Oversold
BHF	Brighthouse Finl	2.5%	19.8	Avoid	43	-2.1%	-0.3%	1.2x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLV (Healthcare) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
XBI	Biotech (Equal Wt)	51.9	Hold	49	-4.0%	+4.8%	0.8x	Good entry
IBB	Biotech	49.4	Hold	54	-1.5%	+5.2%	0.8x	Reasonable
XHE	Health Equipment	41.3	Hold	49	-1.8%	+2.5%	0.6x	Good entry
IHI	Medical Devices	33.2	Avoid	49	-0.9%	+0.6%	0.8x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).