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Sector Rotation Screen

July 12, 2026 · 11 SPDR sector ETFs vs SPY · Composite weights: Seasonality 25% / Cycle 40% / RS 35%

Mid-cycle

INDPRO YoY +1.7% between 0.0% and 4.0% with curve +0.38: steady expansion.

10Y - 2Y spread

+0.38

6m change: -0.26

10Y yield

4.54%

2Y: 4.16%

INDPRO YoY

+1.7%

3m trend: +0.7

INDPRO as of

2026-05-01

10Y as of: 2026-07-09

Sector Scores & Signals

ETF	Name	Last	% From 52W High	Seasonality	n yrs	Cycle Fit	Rel Strength	RS 3m	Composite	Signal
XLK	Technology	$185.78	-6.16%	85.7	20	100.0	61.2	19.60%	82.8	Buy
XLC	Communications	$111.64	-6.49%	82.0 ⚠	9	100.0	37.1	-13.37%	73.5	Watch
XLI	Industrials	$181.92	-1.96%	85.1	20	50.0	48.6	-5.41%	58.3	Hold
XLF	Financials	$55.71	-0.77%	81.8	20	50.0	47.9	-2.41%	57.2	Hold
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	$117.24	-5.47%	83.2	20	50.0	41.0	-7.12%	55.2	Hold
XLRE	Real Estate	$44.45	-1.75%	89.6	11	50.0	29.6	-6.39%	52.7	Hold
XLB	Materials	$50.89	-4.31%	73.3	20	50.0	35.9	-12.46%	50.9	Hold
XLU	Utilities	$45.41	-3.58%	75.9	20	35.0	50.2	-14.40%	50.5	Hold
XLP	Consumer Staples	$84.12	-5.37%	78.1	20	35.0	33.2	-9.82%	45.2	Hold
XLE	Energy	$55.08	-11.32%	62.3	20	50.0	25.4	-14.55%	44.5	Hold
XLV	Healthcare	$160.84	-2.19%	79.6	20	35.0	23.8	-3.14%	42.2	Hold

Click any column header to sort. ⚠ flags sectors with under 10 years of history. Composite weights and signal thresholds tunable in config.py.

Backtest since May 2011

Strategy cum return

+636.33%

SPY: +626.21%

Strategy CAGR

+14.15%

SPY: +14.05%

Strategy Sharpe

0.89

SPY: 0.98

Max drawdown

-18.78%

SPY: -22.93%

Equity curves start at 1.00. Trading cost 1 bps applied to turnover at each rebalance. Cash held when no sectors clear MIN_SCORE_TO_HOLD=50.

Seasonality Heatmap (avg monthly return by sector)

Sector	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
XLK	+0.1%	+0.7%	+1.5%	+2.8%	+3.3%	+0.9%	+3.2%	+1.0%	-0.2%	+1.8%	+2.0%	+0.8%
XLF	-0.2%	-0.5%	+0.2%	+2.6%	+0.1%	-1.0%	+2.8%	+0.3%	-0.6%	+1.1%	+2.3%	+1.0%
XLE	+1.3%	+1.6%	+1.3%	+3.4%	-0.2%	-0.1%	+0.6%	-1.5%	-0.8%	+1.6%	+2.3%	-0.1%
XLV	+0.9%	-0.2%	+0.8%	+1.0%	+0.7%	+1.2%	+2.0%	+0.6%	-0.3%	+0.6%	+2.7%	+0.9%
XLI	+0.5%	+1.0%	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.5%	-0.1%	+2.6%	-0.0%	-0.0%	+0.9%	+3.5%	+0.6%
XLY	+0.8%	-0.0%	+0.8%	+3.1%	+0.3%	+0.1%	+3.1%	+0.7%	+0.4%	+0.5%	+2.7%	+0.5%
XLP	-0.2%	+0.6%	+1.6%	+1.5%	+0.0%	+0.0%	+2.1%	+0.5%	-0.3%	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.7%
XLU	+0.2%	-0.7%	+2.6%	+2.0%	+0.3%	+0.0%	+2.1%	+0.2%	-0.5%	+1.7%	+0.9%	+0.7%
XLB	-0.0%	+1.5%	+1.3%	+2.6%	+0.4%	-0.7%	+2.3%	-0.1%	-1.4%	+0.8%	+2.9%	+0.6%
XLRE	+0.5%	-0.3%	+0.9%	+1.0%	+0.4%	+1.8%	+3.1%	+0.7%	-2.9%	-0.9%	+3.1%	+0.5%
XLC	+4.2%	-0.9%	-0.8%	+2.0%	+2.6%	+0.8%	+2.6%	+1.5%	-2.0%	-0.7%	+3.5%	-0.0%

Green > 0%, red < 0%. Cells require ≥5 years of history for that month.

3-Month Relative Strength vs SPY

XLK

+19.60%

XLF

-2.41%

XLV

-3.14%

XLI

-5.41%

XLRE

-6.39%

XLY

-7.12%

XLP

-9.82%

XLB

-12.46%

XLC

-13.37%

XLU

-14.40%

XLE

-14.55%

Drill-Down: XLK (Technology) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
SMH	Semiconductors	68.3	Buy	51	-1.7%	+3.5%	0.8x	Reasonable
CIBR	Cybersecurity	57.8	Hold	62	+4.8%	+10.5%	1.2x	Reasonable
FDN	Internet	55.9	Hold	61	+3.8%	+2.7%	0.7x	Reasonable
BOTZ	AI & Robotics	52.6	Hold	46	-0.9%	-4.5%	1.0x	Good entry
SKYY	Cloud Computing	49.2	Hold	59	+4.2%	+4.7%	0.8x	Reasonable
IGV	Software	41.1	Hold	51	+2.0%	+0.4%	0.7x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in SMH (Semiconductors)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
AMD	AMD	5.5%	98.8	Buy	57	+5.1%	+15.8%	0.9x	Extended
INTC	Intel	3.5%	91.4	Buy	43	-11.8%	-6.1%	0.8x	Oversold
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.5%	87.1	Buy	55	+2.6%	+4.0%	0.6x	Reasonable
AVGO	Broadcom	8.0%	58.3	Hold	54	+4.5%	-1.5%	0.8x	Reasonable
MU	Micron Technology	4.0%	53.7	Hold	49	-7.0%	+8.9%	0.8x	Oversold
NVDA	NVIDIA	20.0%	49.7	Hold	57	+4.5%	+0.9%	0.9x	Reasonable
LRCX	Lam Research	3.5%	49.5	Hold	49	-6.4%	+6.4%	0.8x	Oversold
QCOM	Qualcomm	5.0%	36.5	Avoid	45	-4.8%	-8.4%	0.6x	Good entry
TSM	Taiwan Semi	12.0%	33.8	Avoid	50	-1.6%	+2.5%	0.8x	Good entry
ASML	ASML Holdings	5.0%	25.4	Avoid	51	-2.3%	+6.8%	0.7x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLC (Communications) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
NERD	Gaming & Esports	64.0	Hold	59	+3.2%	+1.9%	0.5x	Reasonable
SOCL	Social Media	50.1	Hold	57	+3.4%	+1.5%	0.6x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in NERD (Gaming & Esports)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
TTWO	Take-Two Interactive	7.4%	86.9	Buy	55	+1.5%	+5.7%	0.7x	Reasonable
CCOEY	Capcom	3.4%	67.1	Buy	63	+8.9%	+4.8%	0.8x	Extended
RBLX	Roblox	8.3%	63.6	Hold	59	+8.5%	+16.5%	0.6x	Extended
NCBDY	Bandai Namco	4.0%	59.5	Hold	66	+6.4%	+6.8%	0.6x	Extended
U	Unity Software	4.3%	58.0	Hold	63	+8.8%	+10.3%	1.0x	Extended
NEXOY	Nexon	4.5%	48.2	Hold	52	+3.2%	-2.6%	0.7x	Reasonable
NTES	NetEase	10.8%	45.0	Hold	55	+2.0%	+5.7%	1.0x	Reasonable
EA	Electronic Arts	7.7%	34.9	Avoid	70	+1.0%	+1.9%	0.8x	Reasonable
KONMY	Konami	4.4%	16.2	Avoid	44	-1.4%	-5.0%	1.1x	Good entry
NTDOY	Nintendo	10.8%	4.7	Avoid	49	+1.1%	-2.3%	1.0x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLI (Industrials) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
JETS	Airlines	72.4	Buy	58	+0.8%	+10.8%	1.1x	Reasonable
PAVE	Infrastructure	50.0	Hold	47	-2.0%	-0.3%	0.9x	Good entry
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	48.2	Hold	52	-0.3%	+3.7%	0.9x	Reasonable
XAR	Aerospace & Def (EW)	36.8	Avoid	44	-2.9%	-0.6%	1.0x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLF (Financials) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
KIE	Insurance	79.2	Buy	70	+4.5%	+9.3%	1.0x	Reasonable
KBE	Banks	71.0	Buy	61	+2.0%	+6.0%	1.0x	Reasonable
KRE	Regional Banks	69.5	Buy	60	+1.8%	+6.0%	0.8x	Reasonable
IYG	Financial Services	60.4	Hold	64	+2.2%	+5.4%	2.3x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in KIE (Insurance)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
LMND	Lemonade	2.9%	78.0	Buy	61	+10.5%	+20.2%	1.1x	Extended
RNR	RenaissanceRe	2.0%	67.3	Buy	55	+1.2%	+5.0%	1.1x	Reasonable
RYAN	Ryan Specialty	2.1%	65.9	Buy	63	+7.3%	+17.7%	0.7x	Extended
MCY	Mercury General	2.2%	62.4	Hold	63	+3.1%	+7.5%	0.9x	Reasonable
CINF	Cincinnati Financial	2.0%	53.3	Hold	54	+0.5%	+6.3%	1.1x	Reasonable
WTM	White Mountains Ins	2.1%	52.0	Hold	66	+5.0%	+4.1%	1.0x	Extended
ORI	Old Republic Intl	2.1%	43.6	Hold	62	+2.9%	+5.8%	0.7x	Reasonable
L	Loews Corp	2.1%	36.0	Avoid	63	+2.7%	+5.8%	0.9x	Reasonable
AGO	Assured Guaranty	2.0%	30.6	Avoid	62	+3.3%	+5.3%	0.8x	Reasonable
BHF	Brighthouse Finl	2.5%	27.5	Avoid	77	+3.4%	+4.9%	1.0x	Extended

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLY (Consumer Discretionary) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
IBUY	Online Retail	68.3	Buy	61	+2.5%	+5.3%	0.3x	Reasonable
XRT	Retail	63.4	Hold	58	+1.1%	+4.2%	0.7x	Reasonable
PEJ	Leisure & Entertain	55.7	Hold	57	+0.4%	+5.0%	1.1x	Reasonable
XHB	Homebuilders	51.2	Hold	49	-1.9%	+3.0%	0.8x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).