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Sector Rotation Screen

July 07, 2026 · 11 SPDR sector ETFs vs SPY · Composite weights: Seasonality 25% / Cycle 40% / RS 35%

Mid-cycle

INDPRO YoY +1.7% between 0.0% and 4.0% with curve +0.35: steady expansion.

10Y - 2Y spread

+0.35

6m change: -0.37

10Y yield

4.49%

2Y: 4.14%

INDPRO YoY

+1.7%

3m trend: +0.7

INDPRO as of

2026-05-01

10Y as of: 2026-07-02

Sector Scores & Signals

ETF	Name	Last	% From 52W High	Seasonality	n yrs	Cycle Fit	Rel Strength	RS 3m	Composite	Signal
XLC	Communications	$111.68	-6.46%	82.0 ⚠	9	100.0	47.3	-13.76%	77.1	Buy
XLK	Technology	$179.99	-9.08%	82.4	21	100.0	46.9	17.80%	77.0	Buy
XLRE	Real Estate	$45.02	-0.49%	90.1	11	50.0	67.5	-5.20%	66.1	Buy
XLI	Industrials	$181.89	-1.98%	81.2	21	50.0	72.1	-3.18%	65.6	Buy
XLF	Financials	$56.18	0.00%	82.4	21	50.0	67.6	-0.92%	64.2	Hold
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	$117.66	-5.13%	82.5	21	50.0	54.0	-5.83%	59.5	Hold
XLV	Healthcare	$164.21	0.00%	81.6	21	35.0	69.3	-1.20%	58.7	Hold
XLB	Materials	$51.47	-3.21%	70.8	21	50.0	59.2	-11.06%	58.4	Hold
XLP	Consumer Staples	$84.63	-4.79%	78.6	21	35.0	63.5	-10.85%	55.9	Hold
XLU	Utilities	$45.83	-2.68%	77.5	21	35.0	60.5	-14.04%	54.6	Hold
XLE	Energy	$54.09	-12.92%	63.3	21	50.0	39.3	-22.66%	49.6	Hold

Click any column header to sort. ⚠ flags sectors with under 10 years of history. Composite weights and signal thresholds tunable in config.py.

Backtest since May 2011

Strategy cum return

+471.04%

SPY: +626.21%

Strategy CAGR

+12.25%

SPY: +14.05%

Strategy Sharpe

0.81

SPY: 0.98

Max drawdown

-24.13%

SPY: -22.93%

Equity curves start at 1.00. Trading cost 1 bps applied to turnover at each rebalance. Cash held when no sectors clear MIN_SCORE_TO_HOLD=50.

Seasonality Heatmap (avg monthly return by sector)

Sector	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
XLK	+0.1%	+0.7%	+1.5%	+2.8%	+3.3%	+0.9%	+2.8%	+1.0%	-0.2%	+1.8%	+2.0%	+0.8%
XLF	-0.2%	-0.5%	+0.2%	+2.6%	+0.1%	-1.0%	+2.8%	+0.3%	-0.6%	+1.1%	+2.3%	+1.0%
XLE	+1.3%	+1.6%	+1.3%	+3.4%	-0.2%	-0.1%	+0.7%	-1.5%	-0.8%	+1.6%	+2.3%	-0.1%
XLV	+0.9%	-0.2%	+0.8%	+1.0%	+0.7%	+1.2%	+2.3%	+0.6%	-0.3%	+0.6%	+2.7%	+0.9%
XLI	+0.5%	+1.0%	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.5%	-0.1%	+2.2%	-0.0%	-0.0%	+0.9%	+3.5%	+0.6%
XLY	+0.8%	-0.0%	+0.8%	+3.1%	+0.3%	+0.1%	+2.8%	+0.7%	+0.4%	+0.5%	+2.7%	+0.5%
XLP	-0.2%	+0.6%	+1.6%	+1.5%	+0.0%	+0.0%	+2.1%	+0.5%	-0.3%	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.7%
XLU	+0.2%	-0.7%	+2.6%	+2.0%	+0.3%	+0.0%	+2.2%	+0.2%	-0.5%	+1.7%	+0.9%	+0.7%
XLB	-0.0%	+1.5%	+1.3%	+2.6%	+0.4%	-0.7%	+2.1%	-0.1%	-1.4%	+0.8%	+2.9%	+0.6%
XLRE	+0.5%	-0.3%	+0.9%	+1.0%	+0.4%	+1.8%	+3.2%	+0.7%	-2.9%	-0.9%	+3.1%	+0.5%
XLC	+4.2%	-0.9%	-0.8%	+2.0%	+2.6%	+0.8%	+2.6%	+1.5%	-2.0%	-0.7%	+3.5%	-0.0%

Green > 0%, red < 0%. Cells require ≥5 years of history for that month.

3-Month Relative Strength vs SPY

XLK

+17.80%

XLF

-0.92%

XLV

-1.20%

XLI

-3.18%

XLRE

-5.20%

XLY

-5.83%

XLP

-10.85%

XLB

-11.06%

XLC

-13.76%

XLU

-14.04%

XLE

-22.66%

Drill-Down: XLC (Communications) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
NERD	Gaming & Esports	61.2	Hold	67	+5.8%	+3.6%	0.7x	Extended
SOCL	Social Media	37.3	Avoid	56	+3.0%	+1.0%	0.5x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in NERD (Gaming & Esports)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
TTWO	Take-Two Interactive	7.4%	91.5	Buy	73	+9.9%	+12.9%	0.7x	Extended
CCOEY	Capcom	3.4%	66.4	Buy	65	+12.0%	+5.3%	0.7x	Extended
RBLX	Roblox	8.3%	61.2	Hold	64	+16.2%	+19.8%	0.7x	Extended
NTES	NetEase	10.8%	56.1	Hold	63	+5.9%	+9.5%	0.9x	Extended
NCBDY	Bandai Namco	4.0%	53.6	Hold	69	+8.6%	+8.1%	0.7x	Extended
NEXOY	Nexon	4.5%	50.8	Hold	58	+7.2%	-0.3%	1.1x	Extended
EA	Electronic Arts	7.7%	41.7	Hold	69	+0.8%	+1.5%	0.9x	Reasonable
U	Unity Software	4.3%	33.7	Avoid	60	+7.8%	+8.9%	0.9x	Extended
NTDOY	Nintendo	10.8%	22.6	Avoid	51	+1.5%	-1.9%	1.0x	Reasonable
KONMY	Konami	4.4%	7.2	Avoid	9	-8.6%	-11.1%	1.6x	Oversold

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLK (Technology) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
CIBR	Cybersecurity	67.3	Buy	72	+8.1%	+14.5%	1.0x	Extended
SMH	Semiconductors	59.6	Hold	45	-6.1%	-0.4%	1.0x	Oversold
SKYY	Cloud Computing	57.3	Hold	62	+5.4%	+6.6%	0.8x	Extended
FDN	Internet	56.8	Hold	58	+3.3%	+2.1%	0.8x	Reasonable
IGV	Software	55.1	Hold	60	+5.4%	+4.5%	1.1x	Extended
BOTZ	AI & Robotics	45.4	Hold	44	-1.7%	-5.1%	0.9x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in CIBR (Cybersecurity)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
TENB	Tenable	2.0%	99.5	Buy	86	+36.5%	+57.7%	1.4x	Extended
PANW	Palo Alto Networks	7.0%	66.6	Buy	74	+15.6%	+34.7%	1.0x	Extended
NET	Cloudflare	3.0%	61.9	Hold	69	+15.5%	+19.4%	0.8x	Extended
OKTA	Okta	3.0%	60.1	Hold	80	+21.8%	+45.2%	0.8x	Extended
CRWD	CrowdStrike	6.5%	57.9	Hold	74	+12.7%	+25.5%	0.9x	Extended
ZS	Zscaler	5.0%	57.0	Hold	64	+16.2%	+8.4%	0.7x	Extended
FTNT	Fortinet	5.5%	56.7	Hold	71	+8.4%	+24.5%	0.7x	Extended
CSCO	Cisco Systems	4.5%	34.5	Avoid	44	-4.7%	+0.8%	0.9x	Good entry
GEN	Gen Digital	3.5%	23.5	Avoid	67	+9.2%	+14.3%	0.8x	Extended

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLRE (Real Estate) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
VNQ	REITs Broad	72.7	Buy	60	+1.9%	+3.1%	1.2x	Reasonable
ITB	Homebuilders	72.4	Buy	54	+1.0%	+5.5%	0.6x	Reasonable
MORT	Mortgage REITs	61.2	Hold	58	+1.8%	+1.3%	1.7x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in VNQ (REITs Broad)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
WELL	Welltower	7.7%	93.5	Buy	70	+8.6%	+10.6%	0.9x	Extended
SPG	Simon Property	3.5%	92.7	Buy	69	+4.6%	+9.9%	0.7x	Reasonable
PSA	Public Storage	2.8%	83.9	Buy	62	+2.5%	+6.6%	0.7x	Reasonable
O	Realty Income	3.2%	68.8	Buy	62	+3.6%	+3.8%	0.9x	Reasonable
EXR	Extra Space Storage	2.3%	49.9	Hold	55	+0.8%	+3.4%	0.6x	Reasonable
PLD	Prologis	7.0%	38.1	Avoid	52	+0.0%	+0.3%	0.8x	Reasonable
EQIX	Equinix	5.5%	31.7	Avoid	40	-3.7%	-4.2%	1.1x	Good entry
DLR	Digital Realty	3.5%	31.0	Avoid	37	-5.2%	-7.3%	1.7x	Oversold
AMT	American Tower	4.6%	2.6	Avoid	39	-6.5%	-7.4%	1.1x	Oversold
CCI	Crown Castle	2.5%	1.0	Avoid	38	-7.3%	-10.7%	0.9x	Oversold

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLI (Industrials) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
JETS	Airlines	75.4	Buy	66	+4.7%	+14.3%	0.6x	Reasonable
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	56.3	Hold	61	+3.2%	+7.2%	1.0x	Reasonable
PAVE	Infrastructure	55.4	Hold	45	-2.6%	-0.8%	0.9x	Good entry
XAR	Aerospace & Def (EW)	39.7	Avoid	52	+0.5%	+3.2%	0.9x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLF (Financials) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
KIE	Insurance	80.8	Buy	78	+8.1%	+11.9%	1.0x	Extended
KBE	Banks	77.9	Buy	68	+3.4%	+7.1%	1.3x	Reasonable
KRE	Regional Banks	77.7	Buy	65	+3.2%	+7.1%	0.8x	Reasonable
IYG	Financial Services	64.1	Hold	73	+3.8%	+6.6%	1.1x	Extended

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in KIE (Insurance)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
LMND	Lemonade	2.9%	83.9	Buy	80	+30.5%	+37.3%	1.2x	Extended
RYAN	Ryan Specialty	2.1%	72.6	Buy	69	+14.3%	+22.9%	0.8x	Extended
CINF	Cincinnati Financial	2.0%	71.9	Buy	76	+8.0%	+13.3%	0.7x	Extended
RNR	RenaissanceRe	2.0%	71.0	Buy	66	+5.9%	+8.4%	1.0x	Extended
MCY	Mercury General	2.2%	67.9	Buy	70	+6.3%	+10.2%	0.9x	Extended
AGO	Assured Guaranty	2.0%	47.8	Hold	73	+7.4%	+8.0%	0.7x	Extended
L	Loews Corp	2.1%	44.1	Hold	74	+6.2%	+8.4%	0.7x	Extended
ORI	Old Republic Intl	2.1%	38.5	Avoid	67	+5.2%	+7.0%	1.3x	Extended
WTM	White Mountains Ins	2.1%	32.2	Avoid	65	+5.7%	+3.3%	0.8x	Extended
BHF	Brighthouse Finl	2.5%	29.0	Avoid	73	+2.9%	+4.1%	0.9x	Extended

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLY (Consumer Discretionary) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
XHB	Homebuilders	75.0	Buy	51	-0.5%	+4.1%	0.8x	Reasonable
PEJ	Leisure & Entertain	73.1	Buy	61	+1.6%	+6.3%	1.4x	Reasonable
IBUY	Online Retail	72.6	Buy	62	+3.5%	+5.5%	0.2x	Reasonable
XRT	Retail	71.0	Buy	57	+0.9%	+3.7%	0.7x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in XHB (Homebuilders)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
MAS	Masco Corp	3.3%	96.8	Buy	61	+3.9%	+9.8%	0.8x	Reasonable
TOL	Toll Brothers	3.2%	73.9	Buy	52	-0.4%	+6.3%	0.8x	Reasonable
PHM	PulteGroup	3.4%	73.7	Buy	56	+2.0%	+7.4%	0.7x	Reasonable
DHI	D.R. Horton	3.5%	70.8	Buy	53	+0.4%	+4.8%	0.8x	Reasonable
TT	Trane Technologies	3.7%	68.8	Buy	49	-0.6%	+0.6%	0.7x	Good entry
CSL	Carlisle Companies	3.7%	58.0	Hold	47	-2.0%	+0.1%	1.2x	Good entry
CARR	Carrier Global	3.8%	54.4	Hold	46	-3.7%	+1.6%	0.8x	Good entry
IBP	Installed Building	3.6%	52.5	Hold	51	+3.0%	-1.6%	0.6x	Reasonable
JCI	Johnson Controls	4.0%	30.5	Avoid	46	-2.7%	-1.6%	1.1x	Good entry
LEN	Lennar	3.3%	5.8	Avoid	44	-3.4%	-2.4%	0.7x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLV (Healthcare) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
XBI	Biotech (Equal Wt)	93.8	Buy	79	+12.5%	+19.0%	0.8x	Extended
IBB	Biotech	90.5	Buy	81	+10.1%	+14.3%	1.1x	Extended
XHE	Health Equipment	66.1	Buy	66	+5.8%	+8.7%	0.9x	Extended
IHI	Medical Devices	45.3	Hold	62	+4.4%	+4.7%	1.3x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLB (Materials) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
SLX	Steel	48.3	Hold	38	-4.8%	-6.7%	0.4x	Good entry
LIT	Lithium & Battery	47.4	Hold	35	-6.3%	-11.0%	0.5x	Oversold
PICK	Mining	34.2	Avoid	37	-6.1%	-8.6%	0.6x	Oversold
GDX	Gold Miners	25.2	Avoid	43	-2.8%	-9.7%	0.7x	Good entry

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in SLX (Steel)

Ticker	Name	Weight	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
RS	Reliance Steel	3.5%	76.2	Buy	46	-3.7%	-0.1%	0.8x	Good entry
GGB	Gerdau SA	3.8%	63.1	Hold	47	-1.5%	-5.4%	1.0x	Good entry
NUE	Nucor	7.1%	50.1	Hold	42	-6.2%	-4.2%	0.8x	Oversold
VALE	Vale SA	6.8%	49.2	Hold	38	-3.5%	-7.7%	0.8x	Good entry
MT	ArcelorMittal	4.6%	47.9	Hold	51	-0.3%	+0.6%	1.0x	Reasonable
STLD	Steel Dynamics	5.1%	46.8	Hold	40	-8.4%	-6.1%	0.9x	Oversold
BHP	BHP Group	7.8%	45.8	Hold	41	-5.4%	-5.2%	0.8x	Oversold
PKX	POSCO Holdings	5.4%	39.8	Avoid	33	-9.4%	-25.2%	0.8x	Oversold
RIO	Rio Tinto	7.9%	32.5	Avoid	34	-7.1%	-10.4%	0.9x	Oversold
TX	Ternium	4.0%	28.4	Avoid	39	-6.4%	-5.9%	1.2x	Oversold

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLP (Consumer Staples) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETF	Theme	Composite	Signal	RSI	vs 20d	vs 50d	Vol	Entry Timing
FXG	Consumer Staples EW	61.3	Hold	59	+2.0%	+3.0%	1.0x	Reasonable
PBJ	Food & Beverage	55.2	Hold	54	+1.2%	-0.2%	3.2x	Reasonable

RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).