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Sector Rotation Screen

June 28, 2026 · 11 SPDR sector ETFs vs SPY · Composite weights: Seasonality 30% / Cycle 30% / RS 40%
Mid-cycle
INDPRO YoY +1.7% between 0.0% and 4.0% with curve +0.31: steady expansion.
10Y - 2Y spread
+0.31
6m change: -0.37
10Y yield
4.40%
2Y: 4.09%
INDPRO YoY
+1.7%
3m trend: +0.7
INDPRO as of
2026-05-01
10Y as of: 2026-06-25

Sector Scores & Signals

ETF Name Last % From 52W High Seasonality n yrs Cycle Fit Rel Strength RS 3m Composite Signal
XLK Technology $181.11 -8.52% 54.0 20 100.0 87.3 23.55% 81.1 Buy
XLRE Real Estate $45.24 0.00% 84.5 11 50.0 67.0 -0.03% 67.2 Buy
XLI Industrials $181.20 -1.59% 48.1 20 50.0 69.0 -0.66% 57.1 Hold
XLC Communications $106.18 -11.06% 66.8 ⚠ 8 100.0 9.2 -15.46% 53.7 Hold
XLV Healthcare $160.34 0.00% 66.1 20 35.0 50.7 -2.79% 50.6 Hold
XLB Materials $51.60 -2.98% 41.7 20 50.0 52.3 -7.79% 48.4 Hold
XLE Energy $53.84 -13.32% 50.0 20 50.0 43.7 -25.15% 47.5 Hold
XLU Utilities $46.20 -1.91% 51.4 20 35.0 46.2 -10.73% 44.4 Hold
XLP Consumer Staples $84.71 -4.70% 45.1 20 35.0 47.5 -8.17% 43.0 Hold
XLF Financials $53.57 -4.20% 34.6 20 50.0 38.0 -3.70% 40.6 Hold
XLY Consumer Discretionary $114.37 -7.78% 53.9 20 50.0 18.1 -8.00% 38.4 Avoid
Click any column header to sort. ⚠ flags sectors with under 10 years of history. Composite weights and signal thresholds tunable in config.py.

Backtest since May 2011

Strategy cum return
+254.67%
SPY: +639.48%
Strategy CAGR
+8.81%
SPY: +14.27%
Strategy Sharpe
0.64
SPY: 0.99
Max drawdown
-29.12%
SPY: -22.93%
0.83 2.57 4.30 6.03 7.76 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Strategy SPY
Equity curves start at 1.00. Trading cost 10 bps applied to turnover at each rebalance. Cash held when no sectors clear MIN_SCORE_TO_HOLD=50.

Seasonality Heatmap (avg monthly return by sector)

Sector JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
XLK +0.1% +0.7% +1.5% +2.8% +3.3% +0.6% +3.2% +1.0% -0.2% +1.8% +2.0% +0.8%
XLF -0.2% -0.5% +0.2% +2.6% +0.1% -1.0% +2.7% +0.3% -0.6% +1.1% +2.3% +1.0%
XLE +1.3% +1.6% +1.3% +3.4% -0.2% -0.0% +0.6% -1.5% -0.8% +1.6% +2.3% -0.1%
XLV +0.9% -0.2% +0.8% +1.0% +0.7% +1.3% +2.2% +0.6% -0.3% +0.6% +2.7% +0.9%
XLI +0.5% +1.0% +0.8% +2.2% +0.5% -0.2% +2.4% -0.0% -0.0% +0.9% +3.5% +0.6%
XLY +0.8% -0.0% +0.8% +3.1% +0.3% -0.0% +2.9% +0.7% +0.4% +0.5% +2.7% +0.5%
XLP -0.2% +0.6% +1.6% +1.5% +0.0% +0.1% +2.1% +0.5% -0.3% +0.8% +2.2% +0.7%
XLU +0.2% -0.7% +2.6% +2.0% +0.3% +0.1% +2.3% +0.2% -0.5% +1.7% +0.9% +0.7%
XLB -0.0% +1.5% +1.3% +2.6% +0.4% -0.6% +2.1% -0.1% -1.4% +0.8% +2.9% +0.6%
XLRE +0.5% -0.3% +0.9% +1.0% +0.4% +2.1% +3.3% +0.7% -2.9% -0.9% +3.1% +0.5%
XLC +4.2% -0.9% -0.8% +2.0% +2.6% +0.7% +2.4% +1.5% -2.0% -0.7% +3.5% -0.0%
Green > 0%, red < 0%. Cells require ≥5 years of history for that month.

3-Month Relative Strength vs SPY

XLK
+23.55%
XLRE
-0.03%
XLI
-0.66%
XLV
-2.79%
XLF
-3.70%
XLB
-7.79%
XLY
-8.00%
XLP
-8.17%
XLU
-10.73%
XLC
-15.46%
XLE
-25.15%

Drill-Down: XLK (Technology) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
SMH Semiconductors 90.5 Buy 52 -1.1% +8.0% 1.1x Reasonable
CIBR Cybersecurity 58.9 Hold 56 -1.3% +8.3% 1.0x Reasonable
SKYY Cloud Computing 32.4 Avoid 45 -5.7% -0.5% 0.8x Oversold
IGV Software 27.4 Avoid 44 -5.6% -2.8% 0.9x Oversold
FDN Internet 25.0 Avoid 41 -4.0% -3.5% 0.8x Good entry
BOTZ AI & Robotics 16.2 Avoid 37 -5.6% -7.0% 0.9x Oversold
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in SMH (Semiconductors)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
MU Micron Technology 4.0% 99.6 Buy 59 +9.4% +41.2% 1.2x Extended
LRCX Lam Research 3.5% 98.7 Buy 58 +6.6% +22.2% 1.2x Extended
INTC Intel 3.5% 92.8 Buy 57 +7.5% +18.4% 0.9x Extended
AMD AMD 5.5% 92.7 Buy 56 +1.8% +18.8% 1.0x Reasonable
ASML ASML Holdings 5.0% 64.3 Hold 54 +0.5% +11.3% 1.0x Reasonable
TSM Taiwan Semi 12.0% 44.7 Hold 52 -0.3% +5.0% 1.1x Reasonable
TXN Texas Instruments 4.5% 40.2 Hold 45 -5.6% -1.7% 1.3x Oversold
QCOM Qualcomm 5.0% 26.7 Avoid 43 -12.9% -4.5% 1.2x Oversold
AVGO Broadcom 8.0% 19.1 Avoid 40 -9.5% -11.3% 0.8x Oversold
NVDA NVIDIA 20.0% 14.7 Avoid 38 -7.3% -8.3% 0.9x Oversold
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLRE (Real Estate) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
ITB Homebuilders 65.7 Buy 69 +8.6% +10.7% 1.0x Extended
VNQ REITs Broad 60.1 Hold 63 +2.9% +3.4% 1.2x Reasonable
MORT Mortgage REITs 41.1 Hold 58 +2.3% +0.6% 1.0x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in ITB (Homebuilders)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
MTH Meritage Homes 3.0% 99.0 Buy 78 +17.0% +25.2% 1.1x Extended
TOL Toll Brothers 5.2% 86.0 Buy 69 +11.5% +15.5% 1.1x Extended
LII Lennox International 3.3% 82.4 Buy 63 +7.6% +10.1% 1.3x Extended
DHI D.R. Horton 15.2% 79.0 Buy 68 +8.6% +10.9% 1.0x Extended
PHM PulteGroup 9.1% 75.6 Buy 73 +11.5% +13.8% 1.3x Extended
BLD TopBuild 4.0% 47.0 Hold 56 +3.4% +1.0% 1.4x Reasonable
HD Home Depot 4.4% 31.7 Avoid 67 +7.6% +8.7% 1.1x Extended
NVR NVR Inc 7.4% 23.0 Avoid 67 +7.3% +9.1% 1.0x Extended
LEN Lennar 7.5% 14.0 Avoid 57 +3.2% +4.4% 0.9x Reasonable
LOW Lowe's 4.5% 11.7 Avoid 54 +3.1% -0.9% 1.0x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLI (Industrials) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
JETS Airlines 80.9 Buy 75 +11.7% +19.6% 0.9x Extended
PAVE Infrastructure 70.1 Buy 57 +2.1% +4.0% 1.0x Reasonable
ITA Aerospace & Defense 44.5 Hold 56 +1.4% +4.4% 0.9x Reasonable
XAR Aerospace & Def (EW) 37.6 Avoid 49 -1.3% +1.3% 0.8x Good entry
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).