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Sector Rotation Screen

May 24, 2026 · 11 SPDR sector ETFs vs SPY · Composite weights: Seasonality 30% / Cycle 30% / RS 40%
Mid-cycle
INDPRO YoY +1.4% between 0.0% and 4.0% with curve +0.49: steady expansion.
10Y - 2Y spread
+0.49
6m change: -0.06
10Y yield
4.57%
2Y: 4.08%
INDPRO YoY
+1.4%
3m trend: +1.0
INDPRO as of
2026-04-01
10Y as of: 2026-05-21

Sector Scores & Signals

ETF Name Last % From 52W High Seasonality n yrs Cycle Fit Rel Strength RS 3m Composite Signal
XLK Technology $180.39 0.00% 80.6 20 100.0 95.2 20.82% 92.3 Buy
XLC Communications $115.46 -3.54% 80.8 ⚠ 8 100.0 15.8 -9.16% 60.6 Hold
XLE Energy $59.49 -4.91% 50.3 20 50.0 64.0 -0.99% 55.7 Hold
XLRE Real Estate $44.56 -0.40% 68.2 11 50.0 31.5 -6.70% 48.1 Hold
XLB Materials $50.29 -5.79% 58.9 20 50.0 32.2 -14.19% 45.6 Hold
XLI Industrials $171.77 -3.72% 58.5 20 50.0 29.9 -11.04% 44.5 Hold
XLY Consumer Discretionary $119.18 -4.10% 58.2 20 50.0 24.8 -5.72% 42.4 Hold
XLF Financials $51.94 -7.43% 53.6 20 50.0 18.3 -6.66% 38.4 Avoid
XLP Consumer Staples $84.80 -5.26% 57.1 20 35.0 26.6 -13.72% 38.3 Avoid
XLV Healthcare $149.89 -6.05% 67.2 20 35.0 13.2 -14.63% 35.9 Avoid
XLU Utilities $45.35 -4.32% 58.4 20 35.0 13.4 -11.74% 33.4 Avoid
Click any column header to sort. ⚠ flags sectors with under 10 years of history. Composite weights and signal thresholds tunable in config.py.

Backtest — last 15 years

Strategy cum return
+224.93%
SPY: +595.59%
Strategy CAGR
+8.22%
SPY: +13.89%
Strategy Sharpe
0.61
SPY: 0.97
Max drawdown
-29.12%
SPY: -22.93%
0.83 2.45 4.07 5.69 7.30 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Strategy SPY
Equity curves start at 1.00. Trading cost 10 bps applied to turnover at each rebalance. Cash held when no sectors clear MIN_SCORE_TO_HOLD=50.

Seasonality Heatmap (avg monthly return by sector)

Sector JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
XLK +0.1% +0.7% +1.5% +2.8% +2.9% +0.8% +3.2% +1.0% -0.2% +1.8% +2.0% +0.8%
XLF -0.2% -0.5% +0.2% +2.6% +0.2% -1.2% +2.7% +0.3% -0.6% +1.1% +2.3% +1.0%
XLE +1.3% +1.6% +1.3% +3.4% +0.0% +0.3% +0.6% -1.5% -0.8% +1.6% +2.3% -0.1%
XLV +0.9% -0.2% +0.8% +1.0% +0.7% +0.9% +2.2% +0.6% -0.3% +0.6% +2.7% +0.9%
XLI +0.5% +1.0% +0.8% +2.2% +0.5% -0.4% +2.4% -0.0% -0.0% +0.9% +3.5% +0.6%
XLY +0.8% -0.0% +0.8% +3.1% +0.2% +0.2% +2.9% +0.7% +0.4% +0.5% +2.7% +0.5%
XLP -0.2% +0.6% +1.6% +1.5% +0.1% +0.1% +2.1% +0.5% -0.3% +0.8% +2.2% +0.7%
XLU +0.2% -0.7% +2.6% +2.0% +0.4% +0.0% +2.3% +0.2% -0.5% +1.7% +0.9% +0.7%
XLB -0.0% +1.5% +1.3% +2.6% +0.3% -0.7% +2.1% -0.1% -1.4% +0.8% +2.9% +0.6%
XLRE +0.5% -0.3% +0.9% +1.0% +0.5% +1.9% +3.3% +0.7% -2.9% -0.9% +3.1% +0.5%
XLC +4.2% -0.9% -0.8% +2.0% +2.6% +1.9% +2.4% +1.5% -2.0% -0.7% +3.5% -0.0%
Green > 0%, red < 0%. Cells require ≥5 years of history for that month.

3-Month Relative Strength vs SPY

XLK
+20.82%
XLE
-0.99%
XLY
-5.72%
XLF
-6.66%
XLRE
-6.70%
XLC
-9.16%
XLI
-11.04%
XLU
-11.74%
XLP
-13.72%
XLB
-14.19%
XLV
-14.63%

Drill-Down: XLK (Technology) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
SMH Semiconductors 93.0 Buy 69 +6.3% +23.1% 1.0x Extended
CIBR Cybersecurity 70.8 Buy 83 +13.1% +23.1% 1.0x Extended
SKYY Cloud Computing 48.7 Hold 70 +5.1% +12.6% 1.1x Extended
BOTZ AI & Robotics 43.7 Hold 59 +1.8% +9.3% 0.9x Reasonable
IGV Software 43.6 Hold 66 +5.2% +10.7% 1.0x Extended
FDN Internet 35.9 Avoid 67 +2.7% +7.7% 0.9x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in SMH (Semiconductors)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
INTC Intel 3.5% 100.0 Buy 68 +9.9% +56.8% 0.8x Extended
MU Micron Technology 4.0% 100.0 Buy 65 +12.3% +44.7% 1.0x Extended
AMD AMD 5.5% 100.0 Buy 73 +15.2% +54.2% 0.8x Extended
QCOM Qualcomm 5.0% 79.1 Buy 72 +22.2% +52.1% 0.7x Extended
TXN Texas Instruments 4.5% 74.2 Buy 72 +6.5% +28.2% 0.9x Extended
LRCX Lam Research 3.5% 67.6 Buy 64 +9.0% +19.4% 0.9x Extended
ASML ASML Holdings 5.0% 37.4 Avoid 62 +8.8% +13.9% 0.9x Extended
AVGO Broadcom 8.0% 28.8 Avoid 53 -1.2% +9.9% 0.9x Reasonable
TSM Taiwan Semi 12.0% 28.3 Avoid 55 +0.5% +8.4% 0.8x Reasonable
NVDA NVIDIA 20.0% 26.5 Avoid 54 +0.3% +9.4% 1.0x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLC (Communications) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
NERD Gaming & Esports 34.5 Avoid 41 -1.7% -2.4% 1.0x Good entry
SOCL Social Media 26.6 Avoid 38 -3.9% -2.6% 1.1x Good entry
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in NERD (Gaming & Esports)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
TTWO Take-Two Interactive 7.4% 76.3 Buy 53 +0.5% +7.1% 1.6x Reasonable
U Unity Software 4.3% 58.1 Hold 48 -4.5% +7.3% 0.7x Good entry
NTES NetEase 10.8% 56.2 Hold 53 +0.8% +1.7% 1.7x Reasonable
EA Electronic Arts 7.7% 52.5 Hold 44 -0.2% -0.5% 1.0x Good entry
CCOEY Capcom 3.4% 31.8 Avoid 41 -4.7% -7.3% 1.7x Good entry
NCBDY Bandai Namco 4.0% 27.4 Avoid 46 -0.1% -4.6% 1.0x Good entry
KONMY Konami 4.4% 24.1 Avoid 34 -4.3% -5.2% 3.0x Good entry
NTDOY Nintendo 10.8% 4.3 Avoid 42 -2.4% -12.8% 0.6x Good entry
RBLX Roblox 8.3% 2.6 Avoid 49 +3.0% -9.3% 0.8x Good entry
NEXOY Nexon 4.5% 1.7 Avoid 33 -10.4% -15.9% 1.2x Oversold
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLE (Energy) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
OIH Oil Services 72.4 Buy 59 +0.8% +6.2% 1.1x Reasonable
XOP Oil & Gas E&P 64.6 Hold 50 -0.6% -0.5% 1.1x Reasonable
AMLP MLPs / Midstream 50.6 Hold 66 +2.7% +4.7% 0.9x Reasonable
URA Uranium / Nuclear 27.0 Avoid 41 -8.0% -5.4% 0.9x Oversold
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in OIH (Oil Services)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
NE Noble Corp 5.4% 77.1 Buy 55 +0.9% +4.6% 0.8x Reasonable
LBRT Liberty Energy 4.4% 73.9 Buy 49 -3.7% +3.8% 0.7x Good entry
HAL Halliburton 6.9% 66.7 Buy 55 +0.3% +5.7% 1.1x Reasonable
RIG Transocean 5.3% 61.7 Hold 52 +0.5% +3.8% 1.0x Reasonable
SLB Schlumberger 20.3% 59.3 Hold 63 +2.6% +8.5% 1.1x Reasonable
WHD Cactus 3.5% 57.9 Hold 71 +8.7% +17.4% 1.2x Extended
TS Tenaris 5.1% 57.7 Hold 57 +0.6% +4.8% 1.2x Reasonable
FTI TechnipFMC 6.7% 49.7 Hold 46 -3.2% -0.6% 1.0x Good entry
WFRD Weatherford Intl 3.3% 39.0 Avoid 56 +0.6% +7.9% 0.9x Reasonable
BKR Baker Hughes 11.5% 31.7 Avoid 54 -0.5% +4.7% 1.0x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).