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Sector Rotation Screen

May 17, 2026 · 11 SPDR sector ETFs vs SPY · Composite weights: Seasonality 30% / Cycle 30% / RS 40%
Mid-cycle
INDPRO YoY +1.4% between 0.0% and 4.0% with curve +0.47: steady expansion.
10Y - 2Y spread
+0.47
6m change: -0.05
10Y yield
4.47%
2Y: 4.00%
INDPRO YoY
+1.4%
3m trend: +1.0
INDPRO as of
2026-04-01
10Y as of: 2026-05-14

Sector Scores & Signals

ETF Name Last % From 52W High Seasonality n yrs Cycle Fit Rel Strength RS 3m Composite Signal
XLK Technology $176.26 -1.81% 80.1 20 100.0 93.0 17.74% 91.2 Buy
XLC Communications $116.08 -3.02% 81.1 ⚠ 8 100.0 20.5 -7.09% 62.5 Hold
XLE Energy $59.44 -4.99% 50.3 20 50.0 69.6 1.36% 57.9 Hold
XLB Materials $50.30 -5.77% 58.9 20 50.0 33.9 -13.95% 46.2 Hold
XLI Industrials $171.40 -3.92% 58.4 20 50.0 34.2 -10.03% 46.2 Hold
XLRE Real Estate $43.23 -3.38% 61.9 11 50.0 24.5 -8.67% 43.4 Hold
XLP Consumer Staples $84.64 -5.44% 57.0 20 35.0 34.5 -13.63% 41.4 Hold
XLY Consumer Discretionary $116.53 -6.23% 55.1 20 50.0 15.9 -8.22% 37.9 Avoid
XLF Financials $51.10 -8.93% 52.8 20 50.0 12.8 -9.27% 36.0 Avoid
XLV Healthcare $145.10 -9.05% 63.6 20 35.0 9.3 -16.31% 33.3 Avoid
XLU Utilities $43.87 -7.44% 56.9 20 35.0 9.4 -13.71% 31.3 Avoid
Click any column header to sort. ⚠ flags sectors with under 10 years of history. Composite weights and signal thresholds tunable in config.py.

Backtest — last 15 years

Strategy cum return
+224.93%
SPY: +595.59%
Strategy CAGR
+8.22%
SPY: +13.89%
Strategy Sharpe
0.61
SPY: 0.97
Max drawdown
-29.12%
SPY: -22.93%
0.83 2.45 4.07 5.69 7.30 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Strategy SPY
Equity curves start at 1.00. Trading cost 10 bps applied to turnover at each rebalance. Cash held when no sectors clear MIN_SCORE_TO_HOLD=50.

Seasonality Heatmap (avg monthly return by sector)

Sector JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
XLK +0.1% +0.7% +1.5% +2.8% +2.8% +0.8% +3.2% +1.0% -0.2% +1.8% +2.0% +0.8%
XLF -0.2% -0.5% +0.2% +2.6% +0.1% -1.2% +2.7% +0.3% -0.6% +1.1% +2.3% +1.0%
XLE +1.3% +1.6% +1.3% +3.4% +0.0% +0.3% +0.6% -1.5% -0.8% +1.6% +2.3% -0.1%
XLV +0.9% -0.2% +0.8% +1.0% +0.6% +0.9% +2.2% +0.6% -0.3% +0.6% +2.7% +0.9%
XLI +0.5% +1.0% +0.8% +2.2% +0.4% -0.4% +2.4% -0.0% -0.0% +0.9% +3.5% +0.6%
XLY +0.8% -0.0% +0.8% +3.1% +0.1% +0.2% +2.9% +0.7% +0.4% +0.5% +2.7% +0.5%
XLP -0.2% +0.6% +1.6% +1.5% +0.1% +0.1% +2.1% +0.5% -0.3% +0.8% +2.2% +0.7%
XLU +0.2% -0.7% +2.6% +2.0% +0.3% +0.0% +2.3% +0.2% -0.5% +1.7% +0.9% +0.7%
XLB -0.0% +1.5% +1.3% +2.6% +0.3% -0.7% +2.1% -0.1% -1.4% +0.8% +2.9% +0.6%
XLRE +0.5% -0.3% +0.9% +1.0% +0.3% +1.9% +3.3% +0.7% -2.9% -0.9% +3.1% +0.5%
XLC +4.2% -0.9% -0.8% +2.0% +2.6% +1.9% +2.4% +1.5% -2.0% -0.7% +3.5% -0.0%
Green > 0%, red < 0%. Cells require ≥5 years of history for that month.

3-Month Relative Strength vs SPY

XLK
+17.74%
XLE
+1.36%
XLC
-7.09%
XLY
-8.22%
XLRE
-8.67%
XLF
-9.27%
XLI
-10.03%
XLP
-13.63%
XLU
-13.71%
XLB
-13.95%
XLV
-16.31%

Drill-Down: XLK (Technology) BUY

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
SMH Semiconductors 94.7 Buy 66 +6.6% +23.2% 1.3x Extended
CIBR Cybersecurity 51.1 Hold 79 +11.4% +18.2% 1.0x Extended
BOTZ AI & Robotics 43.2 Hold 60 +3.2% +10.2% 1.0x Reasonable
SKYY Cloud Computing 38.2 Avoid 64 +3.7% +10.4% 1.2x Reasonable
IGV Software 35.8 Avoid 64 +4.7% +8.9% 0.9x Reasonable
FDN Internet 31.9 Avoid 62 +1.2% +6.5% 1.3x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in SMH (Semiconductors)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
INTC Intel 3.5% 100.0 Buy 62 +11.5% +56.5% 0.9x Extended
MU Micron Technology 4.0% 100.0 Buy 66 +19.6% +49.1% 1.2x Extended
AMD AMD 5.5% 95.7 Buy 67 +14.1% +51.9% 0.7x Extended
TXN Texas Instruments 4.5% 84.7 Buy 75 +9.1% +31.4% 0.8x Extended
QCOM Qualcomm 5.0% 71.7 Buy 62 +13.9% +35.2% 1.1x Extended
LRCX Lam Research 3.5% 58.2 Hold 57 +4.2% +14.9% 0.9x Reasonable
AVGO Broadcom 8.0% 40.9 Hold 59 +1.6% +15.1% 0.9x Reasonable
NVDA NVIDIA 20.0% 38.8 Avoid 65 +7.1% +16.7% 1.1x Extended
TSM Taiwan Semi 12.0% 33.5 Avoid 56 +1.6% +10.0% 1.1x Reasonable
ASML ASML Holdings 5.0% 28.8 Avoid 52 +1.6% +6.1% 1.1x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLC (Communications) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
NERD Gaming & Esports 31.3 Avoid 37 -2.9% -2.8% 0.7x Good entry
SOCL Social Media 28.0 Avoid 45 -2.5% -0.6% 0.8x Good entry
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in NERD (Gaming & Esports)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
TTWO Take-Two Interactive 7.4% 85.6 Buy 76 +9.7% +15.4% 1.4x Extended
U Unity Software 4.3% 60.7 Hold 59 +1.9% +16.9% 0.9x Reasonable
EA Electronic Arts 7.7% 55.9 Hold 39 -0.5% -0.6% 1.1x Good entry
KONMY Konami 4.4% 53.3 Hold 60 +2.4% +2.9% 0.0x Reasonable
NTES NetEase 10.8% 37.2 Avoid 45 -1.6% -1.1% 1.1x Good entry
NCBDY Bandai Namco 4.0% 27.3 Avoid 46 +0.1% -5.1% 1.4x Good entry
CCOEY Capcom 3.4% 25.0 Avoid 33 -10.1% -10.9% 1.2x Oversold
NTDOY Nintendo 10.8% 4.0 Avoid 37 -7.0% -16.6% 1.2x Oversold
NEXOY Nexon 4.5% 1.7 Avoid 28 -14.5% -18.5% 1.2x Oversold
RBLX Roblox 8.3% 0.3 Avoid 34 -14.1% -21.4% 0.9x Oversold
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Drill-Down: XLE (Energy) WATCH

Sub-Sector ETFs (ranked by composite)

ETFThemeCompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
OIH Oil Services 76.5 Buy 61 +1.8% +7.2% 0.7x Reasonable
XOP Oil & Gas E&P 70.0 Buy 55 +1.9% +1.5% 0.8x Reasonable
AMLP MLPs / Midstream 49.6 Hold 68 +3.7% +4.5% 1.0x Reasonable
URA Uranium / Nuclear 28.6 Avoid 41 -9.3% -4.0% 1.1x Oversold
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).

Top Holdings in OIH (Oil Services)

TickerNameWeight CompositeSignal RSIvs 20dvs 50d VolEntry Timing
LBRT Liberty Energy 4.4% 95.1 Buy 58 +1.9% +8.9% 0.9x Reasonable
NE Noble Corp 5.4% 76.7 Buy 63 +5.3% +8.3% 0.7x Extended
HAL Halliburton 6.9% 74.3 Buy 60 +3.1% +8.5% 0.7x Reasonable
TS Tenaris 5.1% 65.9 Buy 53 -0.8% +4.6% 0.8x Reasonable
RIG Transocean 5.3% 61.8 Hold 63 +8.6% +9.0% 0.8x Extended
FTI TechnipFMC 6.7% 61.5 Hold 47 -2.8% +1.0% 0.9x Good entry
SLB Schlumberger 20.3% 49.9 Hold 56 +0.6% +7.0% 0.7x Reasonable
WFRD Weatherford Intl 3.3% 45.4 Hold 60 +2.5% +10.1% 0.8x Reasonable
BKR Baker Hughes 11.5% 34.1 Avoid 49 -2.2% +2.9% 0.8x Good entry
WHD Cactus 3.5% 29.1 Avoid 59 +2.6% +10.0% 1.1x Reasonable
RSI(14): <30 oversold, >70 overbought. vs 20d/50d: distance from moving average. Vol: 5-day avg volume ÷ 20-day avg (>1 = rising interest).